Observed and Projected Rainfall Trends and Variability: A Case Study in Gama Gofa Zone, Ethiopia

Abstract

This study analyzed trends and variability of the current and projected rainfall in Gamo Gofa Zone. Current rainfall data was collected from Hawassa national meteorology agency. Depending on the quality of the data seven meteorological stations were selected. Projected rainfall was downloaded. Rainfall variability analysis has been done using variability indices like, coefficient of variation (CV), precipitation concentration index (PCI) and Standard anomaly index (SAI).Trend analysis was carried out using Man-Kendall trend test at 1, 5 and 10% significance levels. Rainfall variability showed that high monthly and seasonal rainfall variability, while annual rainfall showed low variability. Analysis of rainfall distribution indicated moderate aThis study analyzed trends and variability of the current and projected rainfall in Gamo Gofa Zone. Current rainfall data was collected from Hawassa national meteorology agency. Depending on the quality of the data seven meteorological stations were selected. Projected rainfall was downloaded. Rainfall variability analysis has been done using variability indices like, coefficient of variation (CV), precipitation concentration index (PCI) and Standard anomaly index (SAI).Trend analysis was carried out using Man-Kendall trend test at 1, 5 and 10% significance levels. Rainfall variability showed that high monthly and seasonal rainfall variability, while annual rainfall showed low variability. Analysis of rainfall distribution indicated moderate annual and low to moderate seasonal rainfall distribution. During the period of study moderate and severe extreme droughts occurred. The results suggest the need for designing appropriate adaptation strategies to offset the negative impacts of high monthly and seasonal rainfall variability. nnual and low to moderate seasonal rainfall distribution. During the period of study moderate and severe extreme droughts occurred. The results suggest the need for designing